Exploring the land use changes in Eastern Poland: statistics-based modeling

Tomasz Noszczyk , Agnieszka Rutkowska , Józef Hernik


The study analyzed changes in surface areas of individual land use types in five administrative regions of Poland in the eastern-most part of the country. Annual time series for the following variables were used: agricultural land, forest land, built-up and urbanized land, and wasteland. The primary objective of the paper was to assess land use changes (LUC) in Eastern Poland in 2002–2016. The paper employed a Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Cox-Stuart (CS) test for monotonic trend and the autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model. The deterministic part was selected with the Akaike criterion. The power of the tests was estimated using the Monte Carlo simulation in order to assess their reliability. The results indicate a trend in each of the four series in all the five voivodeships. For forest and built-up land, the trend was upward in each voivodeship. A downward trend was found for the agricultural land and wasteland in all the voivodeships except the Podkarpackie Voivodeship. The results can help regional and local authorities to properly monitor LUC.
Author Tomasz Noszczyk (FoEEaLS / DoSPaLA)
Tomasz Noszczyk,,
- Department of Spatial Planning and Landscape Architecture
, Agnieszka Rutkowska (FoEEaLS / DoAM)
Agnieszka Rutkowska,,
- Department of Applied Mathematics
, Józef Hernik (FoEEaLS / DoSPaLA)
Józef Hernik,,
- Department of Spatial Planning and Landscape Architecture
Journal seriesHuman and Ecological Risk Assessment, [Human and Ecological Risk Assessment (HERA)], ISSN 1080-7039, e-ISSN 1549-7860, (N/A 40 pkt)
Issue year2020
Publication size in sheets1.35
Keywords in Englishland use time series, changes in land use surface area, MK and CS tests for trend, ARMA models, Monte Carlo simulation-based power study
ASJC Classification2302 Ecological Modelling; 2307 Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis; 2310 Pollution
URL https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10807039.2018.1506254?journalCode=bher20
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)40
Score sourcejournalList
Publication indicators WoS Citations = 2; Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2018 = 0.758; WoS Impact Factor: 2018 = 2.012 (2) - 2018=1.689 (5)
Citation count*
Additional fields
FinansowanieThis Research was financed by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Poland, projects No. DS 3371/KGPiAK/2018 and DS 3376/KZM/2018.
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
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