Estimating maximum daily precipitation in the Upper Vistula Basin, Poland

Dariusz Młyński , Andrzej Wałęga , Andrea Petroselli , Flavia Tauro , Marta Cebulska

Abstract

The aim of this study was to determine the best probability distributions for calculating the maximum annual daily precipitation with the specific probability of exceedance (Pmaxp%). The novelty of this study lies in using the peak-weighted root mean square error (PWRMSE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R2) for assessing the fit of empirical and theoretical distributions. The input data included maximum daily precipitation records collected in the years 1971–2014 at 51 rainfall stations from the Upper Vistula Basin, Southern Poland. The value of Pmaxp% was determined based on the following probability distributions of random variables: Pearson’s type III (PIII), Weibull’s (W), log-normal, generalized extreme value (GEV), and Gumbel’s (G). Our outcomes showed a lack of significant trends in the observation series of the investigated random variables for a majority of the rainfall stations in the Upper Vistula Basin. We found that the peak-weighted root mean square error (PWRMSE) method, a commonly used metric for quality assessment of rainfall-runoff models, is useful for identifying the statistical distributions of the best fit. In fact, our findings demonstrated the consistency of this approach with the RMSE goodness-of-fit metrics. We also identified the GEV distribution as recommended for calculating the maximum daily precipitation with the specific probability of exceedance in the catchments of the Upper Vistula Basin.
Author Dariusz Młyński (FoEEaLS / DoSEaWM)
Dariusz Młyński,,
- Department of Sanitary Engineering and Water Management
, Andrzej Wałęga (FoEEaLS / DoSEaWM)
Andrzej Wałęga,,
- Department of Sanitary Engineering and Water Management
, Andrea Petroselli
Andrea Petroselli,,
-
, Flavia Tauro
Flavia Tauro,,
-
, Marta Cebulska
Marta Cebulska,,
-
Journal seriesAtmosphere, ISSN 2073-4433, (N/A 70 pkt)
Issue year2019
Vol10
No2
Pages1-17
Publication size in sheets0.8
Article number43
Keywords in EnglishPWRMSE, trend, theoretical distribution, maximum precipitation
ASJC Classification1902 Atmospheric Science; 2301 Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
DOIDOI:10.3390/atmos10020043
URL https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/2/43/pdf
Languageen angielski
LicenseJournal (articles only); author's original; Uznanie Autorstwa (CC-BY); after publication
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Estimating maximum daily precipitation in the Upper Vistula Basin, Poland of 20-02-2020
3,17 MB
Score (nominal)70
Score sourcejournalList
Publication indicators WoS Citations = 9; Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2018 = 0.855; WoS Impact Factor: 2018 = 2.046 (2) - 2018=2.253 (5)
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