Analysis Of Pole Coordinate Data Predictions In The Earth Orientation Parameters Combination Of Prediction Pilot Project

Wiesław Kosek , B. Luzum , M. Kalarus , Agnieszka Wnęk , Maria Zbylut-Górska

Abstract

In October 2010 the US Naval Observatory together with the Space Research Centre in Warsaw initiated the Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project, which was accepted by the IERS Directing Board. The goal of this project is to determine the feasibility of combining Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) predictions on an operational basis. The ensemble predictions of EOPs are more accurate than the results from individual predictions. The pole coordinate data predictions from different prediction contributors and ensemble predictions computed by the U.S. Naval Observatory are studied to determine the statistical properties of polar motion forecasts by looking at second, third and fourth moments about the mean. The increase of prediction errors in pole coordinate data can be due to the change of phase of the annual oscillation in the joint atmospheric-ocean excitation function.
Author Wiesław Kosek (FoEEaLS / DoG)
Wiesław Kosek,,
- Department of Geodesy
, B. Luzum
B. Luzum,,
-
, M. Kalarus
M. Kalarus,,
-
, Agnieszka Wnęk (FoEEaLS / DoG)
Agnieszka Wnęk,,
- Department of Geodesy
, Maria Zbylut-Górska (FoEEaLS / DoG)
Maria Zbylut-Górska,,
- Department of Geodesy
Journal seriesArtificial Satellites, Journal of Planetary Geodesy, ISSN 0208-841X, e-ISSN 2083-6104, [2083-6104], (B 8 pkt)
Issue year2011
Vol46
No4
Pages139-150
Publication size in sheets0.55
Keywords in EnglishEarth rotation, prediction
DOIDOI:10.2478/v10018-012-0006-x
URL https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/arsa.2011.46.issue-4/v10018-012-0006-x/v10018-012-0006-x.pdf
Internal identifierWIŚIG/2011/2
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)8
Citation count*4 (2016-03-16)
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