Prognozowanie zatrudnienia w gospodarstwie leśnym w systemie ekonomiki planowej

Edmund Kubaczyk

Abstract

The present work attempts to evaluate the up till now used methods of employment in Polish foresty, against the background of socialistic countries and other countries, and at the same time proposes the author's own Method. The analysis has shown that: 1. The generally used methods of forecasting the gualified staff for national economy are not accurate enough when applied to the forest economy. The results obtained by these methods, for the above mentioned economy, differ considerably from the real facts and there are also considerable differences between the respective forecasts. Therefore it is impossible to base exclusively on them in future forecasting of employment in forest economics. 2. The ammount of labour needed is conditioned mainly by technical progress and the level of work effectivness. This dependence occurs in all the professional groups of people employed in the forest economy. The most important factor here, with the relatively small contribution of technical progress, will be, above all, the efficiency of work. Basing on the above, the most accurate of the methods of forecasting, resulting from the investigations, and based on the ground of forestry intensifying economy, proved to be the methods applied by the author: a/ for 2-3 year period of future programming of an identical tread /straight linear function/ for forecasting of the employment of qualified staff in the forest economy, as has been obtained for the years 1966-1974, as the result of an analysis on the example of The District Board of State Forests /OZLP/ in Kraków, b/ for long term forecast up to year 1990 - the parametric exponential function. The use of above methods allows for obtaining the results of the exemplary short term /programme/ and long term forecast concerning certain professional groups fofor OZLP, which meet the requirements set for a forecast of scientific type, and prove the reality of methods proposed. 3. The use of parametric exponential function for a long term forecast in the forest economy created a need for investigations leading to the discovery and determination of adeguate parameters tA and n, characteristic for the forest economy. These investigations should be treated in connection with the problems of forecast verification.
Other language title versionsForecasting of employment in forest economy in the system of planned economics
Book typeMonograph
Other categories ROZPRAWA_HABILITACYJNA
Author Edmund Kubaczyk (FoF)
Edmund Kubaczyk,,
- Faculty of Forestry
PublisherUniwersytet Rolniczy im. Hugona Kołłątaja w Krakowie, MNiSW [80]
Publishing place (Publisher address)Kraków
Issue year1977
Book series /Journal (in case of Journal special issue)Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Rolniczego im. Hugona Kołłątaja w Krakowie. Rozprawy, ISSN 1899-3486, (0 pkt)
Vol128
No48
Pages59
Publication size in sheets3.24
Languagepl polski
Score (nominal)20
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